Card counting in Blackjack gives the player a positive advantage over the casino.
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One of the most common hands in Blackjack is a player’s hand of 16 against a Dealers’s 10. Do you Stand or do you Hit? Most players instinctively want to Stand. After all, there are only 5 cards – the Ace, 2, 3, 4, and 5 cards – that are going to make a hand greater than 16 without exceeding 21. If you are following the Basic Strategy rules then you know that you should Hit, however, if you Count Cards you are more likely to make the correct decision and win the hand. If you know that there are more 10 value cards than low cards left in the shoe, it is a better decision to stand on 16.
The advantage, when playing perfect basic strategy, gained by drawing on 16 against a Dealers 10 is 4% – the player will win 4 more hands out of every 100 played. This is a small advantage that in the long run makes a sizable difference to your bankroll. If however, you knew that there were more ten-value cards still in the deck which would increase your likelihood of busting – would you still Hit? The answer is of course, “No”. These situations occur regularly in Blackjack.
Basic Strategy is based on the concept that each hand is independent of the preceding and following hands. Blackjack is one of the few casino games that is card-dependent. A game like craps for example is roll independent. The roll on the preceding round has no effect on the current or future rounds. Card counting allows the player to gain an advantage by tracking the previous cards that have been played.
It should be stated that card counting is not memorizing the cards that have been displayed as depicted in the movie “Rainman”. If you can count to 10, you can Count Cards. It’s that simple! Card counting is based on the assumption that 10s are more beneficial for the player. Lower value cards, particularly the 5 and 6 cards, are more beneficial to the Dealer. In general, the middle cards, 7 through 9, have no advantage for the player or Dealer. By keeping track of the proportion between lower and higher value cards, a player is able to determine when he has an advantage over the Dealer/casino. This proportion, or “Running Count”, is kept by assigning a positive value to the lower cards (2 through 6) and a negative value to the higher cards (Aces and ten-value cards).
The reason why high-value cards are advantageous to the player is that the casino has to follow a strict set of rules. The Dealer must draw to 17. Therefore the richer the shoe is in 10 value cards, the higher the probability of the dealer busting. Conversely, if there are lower valued cards, remaining in the shoe, the better chance the Dealer has of achieving a good hand.
The player gains the most advantage from card counting in the following plays:
- Playing on 15 or 16 against the Dealer’s 10 up-card
- Making Insurance decisions
- Making Side bet decisions (e.g. Over / Under)
- Playing on 12 against the Dealer’s 2 and 3 up-card
Popular Card Counting Systems
A number of card counting systems have been devised over the years. Some of the earliest card counting systems tracked only the 5 cards and the Ace. Edward Thorpe, in his book “Beat the Dealer”, introduced a number of card counting systems. Some of these systems are still in use today. The most popular systems that are available today include:
| Count System | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | TEN | ACE |
| Hi-Lo | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| High-Low | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Hi-Opt I | 0 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Hi-Opt II | +1 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| Silver Fox | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| K-O | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Omega II | +1 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -2 | 0 |
| Revere Point | +1 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -2 | -2 |
| Uston APC | +1 | +2 | +2 | +3 | +2 | +2 | 1 | -1 | -3 | 0 |
| Omega II | +1 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +1 | 0 | -1 | -2 | 0 |
| Zen Count | +1 | +1 | +2 | +2 | +2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -1 |
| Wong Halves* | +0.5(1) | +1.0(2) | +1.0(2) | +1.5(3) | +1.0(2) | +0.5(1) | 0.0(0) | -0.5(-1) | -1.0(-2) | -1.0(-2) |
* Halves can use integer values by using the numbers within the brackets; doubling the original values.
Counting systems that have a maximum step size of 1 are called Level 1 counting systems. Level 2 counting systems are systems with a maximum step size of 2 etc. The more levels a system has, the more efficient and accurate the system is. Counting systems that have the Ace as a 0 value are referred to as Ace neutral card counting systems.
Running Count
The Running Count is the total of the count system’s point values assigned to the cards from the start of the session of games (between shuffles). The example I will refer to is the High-Low count example below.
High-Low Running Count Example
| Card Dealt | ACE (-1) | TEN (-1) | TWO (+1) | SEVEN (0) | TEN (-1) | FIVE (+1) | FOUR (+1) | SIX | TEN (-1) |
| High-Low Count | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 |
When the deck has been shuffled the Running Count starts at a score of 0. If the first card is dealt is an Ace the running count is decreased by 1 because Ace’s count value in the High-Low system is -1. The running count is now -1. If the next card drawn is a 10, the 10 has a count value of -1. The running count gets decreased by 1 and the new running count total is now -2. When the 2 is drawn, a positive value of 1 is added to the existing running count because the 2 card has a count value of +1. This gives a new running total of -1. As each card is drawn from the shoe the count point value of that card is added to, or subtracted from, the running count. This progression keeps going until the deck needs to be reshuffled.
A counting system is referred to as a “balanced count” if after the whole deck has been dealt the running count returned to 0. Examples of balanced card counting systems include High-Low, Hi-Opt I/II, Zen, Wong Halves. An unbalanced count is where the running total after a whole deck is dealt would be any other number than 0. Examples of unbalanced counts include KO, Red 7, and Uston’s Unbalanced Zen count.
The running count is updated every time a card is drawn from the shoe. The more decks that are being played, the greater the tendency for the count to go very negative or very positive. It is imperative that the running count be remembered between individual Blackjack games until the deck is to be reshuffled. When the deck is shuffled and play stopped, the running count is returned to 0. However, the running count is not used for any play decisions, the true count is.
True Count
All of the players playing decisions, when card counting, is based upon the true count. The true count is derived by dividing the running count by the number of remaining decks in the shoe. The resultant figure will determine how much advantage a player has. When the true count is positive the player has an advantage over the casino. Conversely, when the true count is negative the casino has a greater advantage over the player. For every true count increment, the player increases his advantage by roughly 0.5%. Therefore, if you are playing at a casino with a house edge of 0.5% then when the true count is +1 the player is roughly playing even with the casino, that is a 0% advantage for the player or casino. When the true count is greater than 1 the player has the advantage over the house.
| True Count Value | Advantage |
| 0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 2.0 |
| 5 | 2.5 |
To accurately determine the true count you need to know the number of decks remaining in the shoe. The easiest way to work this out is by looking at the discard pile. Assess how many decks have been played since the last shuffle. Subtract this number from the overall number of decks that have been played. The number of decks remaining can be rounded to the nearest half deck for conversion purposes. The true count value is the running count divided by this value. For example:
| Running Count | Number of Decks remaining | True Count |
| 10 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | 1/2 | 6 |
| 1 | 8 | 0.125 |
| -14 | 4 | -3.5 |
| 0 | 1 | 0 |
Betting
For card counting to be profitable the player must bet according to the true count. If the true count is negative, then the player should bet small. The chances of the Dealer achieving a good total are greater, so betting small minimizes the losses. When the true count becomes positive, the player should increase his bet size. The increase in the size of the bet will depend on the advantage the player has. A good rule of thumb is to bet proportionally to the true count. Therefore, if the true count is 4 then the bet size should be 4 times your normal or minimum bet.